National truckload spot rates are holding near $2.80 per mile including fuel, a 23 percent increase from $2.33 per mile a year earlier, according to FreightWaves SONAR data. Tender rejection rates are hovering near 14 percent, a level not seen on a sustained basis since the post pandemic unwind of 2022 and higher than any point in 2023, 2024, or 2025.

Domestic intermodal spot rates tell a different story. Excluding fuel, intermodal spot pricing sits at $1.39 per mile, down 5 percent from $1.48 a year ago and roughly equal to levels recorded during the March 2020 shutdowns. Intermodal spot rates are currently running at about half of their truckload counterparts, and the rail product still offers savings of 20 to 30 percent on key long haul lanes.

The gap between the two modes reflects diverging capacity conditions. Trucking capacity continues to tighten through carrier exits, regulatory pressure on drivers, and returning demand in the Rust Belt, while railroads have used reliable service and aggressive pricing to grow intermodal volumes. FreightWaves projects the spread will narrow through 2026, with some models showing double digit truckload contract rate increases by December, a move that would pull intermodal pricing upward as the truckload ceiling rises.

Source: FreightWaves - https://www.freightwaves.com/news/intermodal-spot-rates-havent-kept-pace-with-truckings-spot-market-surge-but-thats-about-to-change-in-2026