FreightWaves data shows a widening gap between truckload and intermodal pricing as 2026 progresses. Truckload spot rates, including fuel, are holding around 2.80 dollars per mile nationally according to SONAR readings, up 23 percent from 2.33 dollars per mile a year earlier. National tender rejections are hovering near 14 percent, a level not seen consistently since the post pandemic freight unwind of 2022 and higher than any point in 2023, 2024 or 2025.

Domestic intermodal spot rates, excluding fuel, sit at 1.39 dollars per mile, down from 1.48 dollars per mile a year ago, a decline of about 5 percent and roughly the same level intermodal pricing held during the pandemic shutdowns of March 2020. Intermodal rates are now running at about half of truckload's per mile pricing, even though intermodal volumes have posted modest year over year gains on strong rail service reliability.

FreightWaves analysts note that truckload capacity keeps tightening because of carrier exits, regulatory pressure on drivers tied to English proficiency rules and non domiciled commercial license restrictions, and returning freight demand in some regions. As truckload strength persists, the wide rate spread that pushed shippers toward rail in recent years is beginning to narrow, with some models pointing to double digit contract rate increases by the end of 2026.

Source: FreightWaves - https://www.freightwaves.com/news/intermodal-spot-rates-havent-kept-pace-with-truckings-spot-market-surge-but-thats-about-to-change-in-2026