The national Truckload Rejection Index stood at 14.36% in early August, well above its six month average of 10.9%, according to FreightWaves SONAR data. Flatbed rejections ran at 23.5% and refrigerated at 19.46%, both outpacing the national figure. Analysts pointed to the sustained level rather than any single weekly reading as evidence that capacity is not correcting quickly.

Second quarter earnings calls from Knight-Swift, Werner, and J.B. Hunt echoed the data. Knight-Swift management described tender rejections reaching levels the carrier had not seen since 2021 and characterized the cycle as supply driven. Both Knight-Swift and Werner cited federal efforts to revoke invalid commercial driver licenses and close noncompliant driving schools as forces removing low cost capacity. Werner also noted electronic logging device providers exiting the market.

Stripping fuel costs from the calculation, FreightWaves reported that spot rates continued climbing independent of diesel prices, which points to capacity scarcity rather than fuel as the primary driver of pricing. Volume indexes in SONAR remained flat to modest over the same stretch.

J.B. Hunt reported higher intermodal volume as rising fuel costs and constrained truck supply pushed freight toward rail, a mode shift rather than a broad demand increase. The carrier also described a record dedicated pipeline and rising sign-on bonuses. Werner CEO Derek Leathers said organic dedicated business is growing beyond fleet acquisitions.

Source: FreightWaves - https://www.freightwaves.com/news/freight-market-update-5-signals-capacity-is-tight