Total truckload tender volumes have risen roughly 9 percent year over year, while accepted volumes sit essentially flat across the same period, a divergence that points to carriers turning down more freight than they did during comparable stretches of the last cycle.

Data from the SONAR Accepted Truckload Volume Index and the Truckload Rejection Index shows carriers are materially less able to absorb current demand than they were several years ago. The gap between tendered and accepted loads reflects a capacity base that contracted through consecutive soft years and has not rebuilt at the pace of the demand recovery now underway.

Demand growth over the past year traces to three identifiable sources. Hyperscale data center construction has generated sustained flows of heavy equipment, electrical gear, and building materials into new campus sites. Defense spending has added government-linked freight volume. Shippers working from leaner inventory positions have shortened order lead times, which converts into more frequent and smaller shipments rather than fewer bulk moves.

The current uptick still falls short of the demand surges recorded in 2017 and 2020, both of which produced sharper spikes in accepted volume. Separately, the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index Rates Edition recorded dry van spot rates rising 31 percent year over year in May 2026, consistent with tightening capacity translating into higher per-mile pricing.

The combination of flat accepted volume, rising rejection rates, and double-digit spot rate gains describes a market where the constraint sits on the supply side of the equation rather than in shipper demand.

Source: FreightWaves - https://www.freightwaves.com/news/how-long-will-this-truckload-market-cycle-last