U.S. distillate fuel inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, are running near 99.3 million barrels, according to an analysis published November 12 by 24/7 Wall St. That would be the lowest comparable weekly reading since May 2003 if the historical match holds, and the supply shortfall is showing up in retail diesel prices.

The weekly U.S. retail diesel survey now puts the average at $6.13 a gallon, compared with about $3.84 a year ago, an increase of roughly 60%. Regular gasoline averages $4.15, up about 36%, leaving diesel about $1.97 a gallon more expensive than gasoline.

Stocks have fallen well below earlier government projections. In its May Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration expected distillate inventories to finish 2026 at 112.4 million barrels, down from 128.2 million at the end of 2025. Current stocks are about 13.1 million barrels short of that year-end forecast, with the heating season only beginning.

Refining capacity offers little cushion. The EIA had projected U.S. refinery utilization at 96% for the third quarter of 2026, close to full capacity, which leaves limited room for plants to run harder. The analysis attributes the tight supply to disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, drone strikes on Russian refineries and record overseas margins that have drawn U.S. barrels into export markets.

The analysis identifies two weekly EIA figures to watch: whether distillate stocks climb back above 100 million barrels as refineries return from fall maintenance, and the pace of distillate exports from Gulf Coast refiners. It notes that if inventories remain below 100 million barrels by mid-December, diesel could move back toward its September high of $6.53 a gallon.

Source: 24/7 Wall St. - https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/11/12/americas-diesel-stockpiles-are-running-low-and-families-could-pay-the-price/