U.S. refinery closures are tightening the nation's fuel supply, with data from the Energy Information Administration showing capacity and inventories both under strain heading through 2026. Operable atmospheric distillation capacity stood at 18.2 million barrels per calendar day on January 1, 2026, down more than 250,000 barrels per day, about 1 percent, from a year earlier.

The recent decline is part of a longer contraction. Seven major refinery closures and conversions since 2019 have permanently removed more than 1.2 million barrels per day of crude processing capacity from the U.S. system. With fewer plants in operation, the remaining refineries are running hard: utilization reached 94.8 percent in December 2025 as crude inputs hit 17.0 million barrels per day.

Inventories tell the tightest part of the story. The EIA projects that combined stocks of motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, and jet fuel will fall to about 375 million barrels in 2026, the lowest level since 2000. The agency also forecast that jet fuel days of supply could drop to 21 days, the lowest reading since 1963, though jet fuel stocks rebounded to roughly 45 million barrels by late May as production reached record levels and near-term shortage concerns eased.

For freight operators, thinner refined product buffers mean fuel prices are more exposed to sudden supply shocks. Reduced domestic refining capacity leaves less slack to absorb outages, storms, or demand spikes that can ripple quickly into diesel costs.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration -- https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64644