U.S. operable atmospheric distillation capacity stood at 18.2 million barrels per calendar day on January 1, 2026, a decline of more than 250,000 barrels per calendar day, or about 1 percent, from the level recorded one year earlier.

The reduction continues a multi year contraction in domestic refining. Capacity has been permanently retired, converted to renewable fuel production, or idled, and the plants that remain have run at utilization rates near the top of the historical band. EIA weekly utilization data has held above 92 percent through much of the period, leaving limited spare capacity to absorb a demand surge or an unplanned outage.

The supply consequences show up in inventory forecasts. EIA projects that combined inventories of motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil and jet fuel will fall to their lowest level since 2000, ending the year near 375 million barrels against 358 million barrels at the close of 2000. Jet fuel is the tightest of the three, with days of supply forecast to drop to roughly 21 days, the lowest reading since 1963.

Regional exposure is uneven. California is set to lose about 17 percent of its state refining capacity from the combined Phillips 66 and Valero closures, and EIA has identified West Coast fuel price increases and record gasoline import dependence as a consequence of that shift.

Refineries also ran unusually hard in the second quarter of 2026, processing the most crude oil for that quarter since 2019, when total U.S. refining capacity was 4 percent higher than today.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67807