U.S. refineries are operating at high intensity in 2026, leaving little spare capacity in the domestic fuel system. Energy Information Administration data show crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.0 million barrels per day during the week ending May 22, with refineries running at 94.5 percent of operable capacity. The figure tracks closely with the 94.8 percent utilization recorded in December 2025, confirming that operating plants are running hard to meet demand.

The supply picture is shaped by a shrinking refining base. EIA forecasts project U.S. refining capacity declining toward roughly 17.9 million barrels per calendar day as recent closures take effect, and longer-range projections show capacity easing further through 2050 even as throughput stays above 14.7 million barrels per day. The Gulf Coast corridor, which houses more than half of national refining capacity, supplies both domestic markets and growing export volumes of diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

High utilization leaves the system exposed to disruption. When a major refinery goes offline for maintenance or after a weather event, regional fuel prices can spike quickly because there is limited slack to absorb lost output. U.S. petroleum product exports set a record of 6.6 million barrels per day in 2024, adding another draw on refined supply.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration - https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/refinerycapacity/