U.S. refinery capacity utilization stood close to 90 percent in January and early February 2026, roughly five percentage points above typical seasonal averages, even after weather-related disruptions during a late-January cold snap, according to an analysis of EIA weekly data by commodities intelligence firm Kpler.

U.S. refinery runs averaged 16.67 million barrels per day in January, supported by lighter maintenance activity and generally stable operating conditions along the Gulf Coast. Winter Storm Fern triggered a series of unplanned outages toward the end of January, causing a temporary dip in refinery runs, though utilization levels stayed above historical norms once operations recovered. Improved economics for heavy sour crude also played a role: sour coking margins expanded to around $20 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, up from roughly $15 per barrel over the same period a year earlier, giving complex Gulf Coast refiners added incentive to maximize crude runs.

The strength comes despite the closure of two major refineries in the prior year that reduced total U.S. system capacity. Looking ahead, analysts expect refinery runs to ease modestly after the first quarter, partly due to the planned closure of Valero's Benicia refinery in California. Further downside could emerge in the back half of 2026 as the industry enters its next maintenance cycle, since major refinery overhauls typically occur every four to five years, raising the likelihood of additional outages through 2027.

Source: Kpler - https://www.kpler.com/blog/whats-sustaining-the-strength-in-us-refinery-runs