US refineries are running near 95% utilization this year, and unplanned Gulf Coast maintenance-season outages fell to an average of 170,000 barrels a day in 2026, down from 300,000 barrels a day in 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Despite the lighter outage season, the EIA projects refinery closures and rising fuel consumption will still push petroleum inventories lower through the rest of 2026.

Two pending US refinery closures are expected to reduce domestic production of refined petroleum products at a time when EIA forecasts show consumption continuing to grow. The agency's modeling indicates that even with refineries running at high utilization rates, the combined effect of lost capacity from closures and steady demand growth will outpace the industry's ability to rebuild inventory cushions built up in prior years.

Refinery utilization rates fluctuate week to week based on planned maintenance schedules, feedstock availability and regional pipeline and rail logistics, and the EIA's weekly data has shown periods of decline even during months when the annual average trends higher. The agency tracks these swings closely because tightening refinery capacity has a direct pass-through effect on retail gasoline and diesel prices, particularly during peak summer driving and shipping seasons when demand for both fuels runs highest.

The EIA's inventory outlook is one of the closest-watched indicators for trucking fleets and other diesel-dependent industries planning fuel budgets for the remainder of the year.

Source: US Energy Information Administration - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64644