US truckload transportation costs are on track for double digit increases this year, according to revised market forecasts. The C.H. Robinson dry van cost per mile outlook for 2026 has been raised to a 23 percent year over year gain, up from an earlier projection of 17 percent. The refrigerated van forecast moved on a similar path, rising to 23 percent from a prior estimate of 16 percent.

Spot pricing has already shown the upward pressure. During the mid May roadside inspection period, spot rate increases reached their highest mark in four years, reflecting how quickly available capacity tightened when enforcement activity pulled trucks off the road.

The forecast revisions point to a market where shippers face meaningfully higher costs than the contract environment of the prior two years. Dry van and refrigerated segments are moving together, which suggests the pressure is broad based rather than concentrated in a single equipment type.

For carriers, the higher rate environment marks a shift after an extended stretch of soft pricing. For shippers, the data signals a need to budget for steeper transportation spend across both temperature controlled and standard freight through the rest of 2026.

Source: C.H. Robinson -- https://www.chrobinson.com/en-us/resources/insights-and-advisories/north-america-freight-insights/may-2026-freight-market-update/na-truckload/