December ultra-low sulfur diesel futures on the CME fell 25.45 cents per gallon in a single session after talk of U.S.-Iran peace discussions circulated on social media, then rebounded 10 to 11 cents the next day when Iranian officials said no agreement was any closer. FreightWaves published the fuel market summary on November 3, 2026, based on an interview with its fuel markets reporter John Kingston.
The weekly Department of Energy retail diesel benchmark fell 6 cents to $6.292 per gallon, a smaller move than the swings in futures. The summary said roughly 10 million barrels per day of global refining capacity has been knocked offline by attacks in the Middle East and Ukraine, and that U.S. and international distillate inventories remain very low heading into heating oil season.
Diesel futures remain in steep backwardation, a structure in which near-term prices exceed later-dated prices, which indicates buyers are paying a premium for immediate supply.
Two refinery deals were announced the same week. Valero said it will buy the shuttered LyondellBasell refinery in Houston, offline for about three years with more than 100,000 barrels per day of capacity, for roughly $350 million. Marathon said it is selling two operating Midwest refineries in Minnesota and North Dakota to a company identified as CVI for over $4 billion. Kingston said the price gap suggests the Houston plant needs substantial investment before it can add supply.
Kingston said the United States is a net exporter of distillates, and that affordability rather than supply is the concern for Northeast heating oil households.
Source: FreightWaves - https://www.freightwaves.com/news/diesel-prices-collapse-then-rebound-whats-driving-volatility