The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its fuel price projections for 2026 and 2027, pointing to tighter refined-product supply and steady consumption. On-highway diesel, the dominant fuel for the trucking industry, has held above $5 per gallon through the spring, with the agency's Short-Term Energy Outlook projecting an average around $5.36 per gallon for the second quarter of 2026. Weekly retail readings in late May ran higher still, near $5.67 per gallon.
The upward revision ties to expectations that distillate inventories will stay low as refinery closures remove processing capacity. Diesel sits at the center of freight economics because fuel ranks among the largest line items in a carrier's per-mile cost. When retail diesel rises, fuel surcharges and contract negotiations follow, affecting shippers and carriers alike.
The EIA publishes diesel prices weekly and updates its broader forecast monthly. The latest projection signals that fleets should plan for elevated fuel costs through the year rather than a return to the lower prices seen earlier in the decade. Analysts note that supply constraints, not a demand spike, are the main force pushing the agency's diesel outlook higher.
Source: Yahoo Finance / EIA - https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/eia-raises-usa-fuel-price-165930520.html