The US Energy Information Administration has raised its projections for diesel and other fuel prices in 2026 and 2027, citing tighter global supplies and lower domestic inventories. The agency now forecasts the US on-highway diesel price to average about 4.80 dollars per gallon in 2026 before easing to roughly 4.11 dollars per gallon in 2027. The revised outlook sits well above earlier estimates issued at the start of the year.
Quarterly figures show pronounced swings. The EIA projects on-highway diesel near 5.61 dollars per gallon in the second quarter, easing to about 5.00 dollars in the third quarter and 4.59 dollars in the fourth. The agency tied the largest second-quarter increases to supply concerns linked to disruptions affecting diesel and jet fuel flows. Refining margins for diesel are forecast to ease later in the year but remain above 2025 levels because of continued global supply tightness.
Distillate inventories underpin the forecast. The EIA expects US distillate fuel oil stocks to stay below the 2021 through 2025 average across the projection period, leaving little cushion against supply shocks. For motor carriers, diesel is one of the largest operating costs after driver wages, and sustained prices near 5 dollars per gallon pressure margins for fleets already navigating a tight freight market. Retail diesel for the week of June 22, 2026 averaged about 4.83 dollars per gallon nationally, with the Gulf Coast lowest and California highest.
Source: Rigzone - https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_raises_usa_fuel_price_projections_for_2026_2027-17-apr-2026-183480-article/