McLeod Software CEO Tom McLeod delivered a cautious assessment of the trucking industry's 2026 outlook during his company's user conference in Nashville. McLeod pointed to three factors shaping the market: the broader economy, freight capacity, and a shifting legal landscape around broker and carrier liability.
Consumer spending drives roughly 70% of the economy, McLeod said, and elevated household debt combined with rising fuel prices is limiting how much room consumers have to keep spending. Business activity has expanded despite lingering uncertainty from tariff and trade discussions.
Freight capacity has started to contract after several years of oversupply following the pandemic era freight boom. McLeod credited stricter enforcement of existing Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration rules, including the crackdown on CDL mills, the English proficiency out of service standard, and updated non domiciled CDL requirements, with removing capacity from the market and supporting a rebound in freight rates.
Legal exposure is also reshaping how carriers and brokers operate. In Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II LLC, a court found broker C.H. Robinson liable for negligent hiring related to a carrier it had used 270 times previously, even though McLeod said the broker followed its standard vetting process. McLeod said the ruling leaves brokers and shippers facing new uncertainty about how liability will be assigned in future cases.
McLeod told FleetOwner that industry conditions remain unsettled and encouraged transportation leaders to proceed carefully rather than assume the market has stabilized.
Source: FleetOwner - https://www.fleetowner.com/operations/article/55404960/capacity-the-economy-and-legal-cases-are-prominent-players-in-tom-mcleods-2026-trucking-outlook