The U.S. trucking industry may be emerging from a four-year freight recession as excess capacity continues to leave the market, though a surge in freight volume is not expected to drive the recovery, according to McLeod Software President and CEO Tom McLeod.
Speaking at the company's annual user conference, McLeod said freight volume has stayed relatively flat for two years, meaning the improving rate environment is being driven mainly by fewer trucks competing for the same loads. He said increased enforcement of existing regulations, including the closure of fraudulent CDL mills and stricter English-language proficiency checks, has helped remove noncompliant drivers and trucks from the market.
Carrier operating costs continue to climb even as rates improve. McLeod cited American Transportation Research Institute figures showing per-mile operating costs reached about $2.34 in 2025, up 42% since 2020, driven by rising insurance, maintenance, new equipment and driver pay costs.
McLeod also pointed to a more troublesome legal environment for freight brokers. In one Texas case, a jury awarded $604 million after a multi-vehicle crash and assigned 23% of the liability to a freight broker that had used the carrier roughly 200 times and had followed its own qualification process. He said cases like this could push brokers toward fewer, larger carriers, which would disproportionately affect smaller fleets. One large logistics provider has already cut its approved carrier list by about 35%, from roughly 100,000 carriers to 64,000.
McLeod advised carriers to understand their costs, protect their rates and look for openings as competitors are weeded out of the market.
Source: Truck News - https://www.trucknews.com/business-management/capacity-cuts-brighten-freight-outlook/1003221599/