Freight capacity in the US trucking market has bottomed out and is beginning to tighten, according to industry data tracking tender rejection rates and spot pricing. Tender rejection rates, which measure how often carriers turn down loads at the offered rate, recently reached their highest levels since 2022, an indicator that carriers again have more leverage in setting terms with shippers.
Dedicated transportation, in which carriers commit trucks to a single shipper under longer-term agreements, is emerging as one of the strongest-performing segments this year. Shippers are increasingly weighing the tradeoffs between relying on the open spot market and locking in dedicated capacity, a shift driven by continued volatility in day-to-day freight availability across the country.
Analysts describe 2026 as a year of moderate stabilization rather than a full freight boom, with volumes expected to hold steady or improve gradually while rates creep upward in markets where capacity is tightest or specialized equipment is required. The broader market remains sensitive to shocks, even as the multi-year freight recession shows signs of easing. Carriers that survived the downturn are now positioned to benefit first as rates recover heading into the back half of the year.
Source: FleetOwner -- https://www.fleetowner.com/news/article/55352178/trucking-capacity-reached-a-bottom-2026-just-needs-better-freight-rates