Carrier supply tightened across the US truckload market through late June and early July, pushing spot rates higher and weakening route guide performance for shippers, according to the July 2026 freight market update from Arrive Logistics.
Tender rejections reached 17.55% in June, the highest reading since 2022. That figure measures how often carriers turn down freight they had committed to haul under contract, and a rising number signals that carriers are finding better paying work on the open market. The seasonal push ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the close of the second quarter accelerated the trend.
The clearest signal came from the relationship between the two pricing channels. Average dry van spot rates moved above contract pricing for the first time since early 2022, a reversal that indicates pricing leverage has started to move back toward carriers. DAT reported national van spot linehaul at $2.49 per mile during the July Fourth holiday week, up seven cents week over week.
Cost pressures on the carrier side remain elevated regardless of rate direction. Insurance premiums continue to climb, maintenance costs have not retreated, and wage increases are being used to recruit and hold drivers in a shrinking labor pool. Enforcement activity has also intensified, adding administrative load for smaller fleets.
Analysts expect some capacity to return as seasonal pressure eases in the coming weeks, though the structural cost picture is likely to limit how far rates fall in the near term.
Source: Arrive Logistics - https://www.arrivelogistics.com/insights/july-2026-freight-market-update/