US truckload freight conditions remained elevated through the week of May 25-29, 2026, with rates holding at a higher baseline rather than retreating following the annual DOT inspection week. Tender rejections stayed at 16.4 percent nationally, a level that indicates capacity is tighter and carrier routing guides are under pressure in key markets.
C.H. Robinson raised its 2026 dry van cost-per-mile forecast from 17 percent year-over-year growth to 23 percent, and refrigerated van cost-per-mile from 16 percent to 23 percent. The revisions reflect sustained capacity tightening in both temperature-controlled and standard dry van segments, driven in part by ongoing fleet contraction as smaller operators continue to exit the market.
Seasonal factors are stacking together in ways that typically sustain pressure into the early summer period. Memorial Day, month-end shipper demand, produce season, and the approaching July 4 holiday window are all converging. Analysts at Transportation Insight noted that import volumes running about 10 percent above prior-year levels are supporting drayage and intermodal, with international containers on rail up roughly 10 to 11 percent year-over-year, signaling continued inventory restocking activity.
Consumer sentiment weaker than analysts expected, with the University of Michigan's May index falling to 44.8 from 49.8 in April, added a cautionary note to the demand picture. Despite soft consumer confidence, freight activity in manufacturing and essential goods categories held steady. Shippers were advised to pull freight forward where possible before the late-June and early-July pressure window intensifies.
Source: Transportation Insight -- https://transportationinsight.com/resources/transportation-industry-trends-may-25-29-2026/